Autonomous driving continues to shape the future of transportation, and with it comes growing public interest in safety, accountability, and performance compared to human drivers. Waymo, one of the most advanced autonomous vehicle developers in the United States, recently released detailed safety statistics showing the performance of its self-driving fleet over millions of miles. Among the findings, one point stands out: very few of Waymo’s most serious crashes were the result of errors by the company’s autonomous driving software.
To better understand the claims, analyzing both the crash data and the individual incidents provides a clearer picture. Between mid-February and mid-August, Waymo reported 45 serious crashes defined as collisions involving airbag deployment or injuries. The reports were submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which requires disclosure of significant autonomous vehicle incidents.
Despite public skepticism surrounding self-driving vehicles, the majority of these crashes reveal a pattern of human error committed by other drivers, rare mechanical issues, or situations beyond the detection capability of any driver or software findings that car accident lawyers closely analyze when determining liability in collisions involving autonomous vehicles.
A Mechanical Failure: The Incident Waymo Accepts Fault For
At 1:14 AM on May 31st, a Waymo vehicle traveling on South Lamar Boulevard in Austin experienced a rare mechanical malfunction: the front left wheel detached. As the wheel separated, the underside of the vehicle scraped the pavement, and the car came to an abrupt stop. A passenger suffered a minor injury.
This was the one incident in the dataset where responsibility clearly fell on Waymo, not the autonomous software. The failure did not arise from flawed driving decisions or lane navigation; instead, it came from a physical hardware component something that can also happen to traditional vehicles.
It also served as a reminder that even the most advanced autonomous systems depend on reliable mechanical parts.
Waymo’s Overall Mileage and Performance Comparison
Waymo reported having driven 96 million miles through June. Using data from typical human driver behavior in major cities, Waymo estimates the following:
- Human drivers would likely have had 159 airbag-triggering crashes over the same distance.
- Waymo, by comparison, recorded only 34.
- That represents a 79 percent reduction compared to average human performance.
Similarly, injury-causing crashes occurred 80 percent less often in Waymo vehicles. Crashes involving pedestrians were reduced by 92 percent, and cyclist-related injuries were reduced by 78 percent.
Various safety experts have previously stated that Waymo’s methodology is solid, though skepticism is expected anytime a company evaluates its own technology. This makes the examination of the crash reports themselves even more important.
Crash Analysis: Reviewing All 45 Significant Incidents
The new NHTSA filings allow a deeper look at crash patterns. Here’s what the six-month dataset reveals.
1. Stationary Waymo Vehicles Hit by Other Drivers
A staggering number of incidents 24 out of 45 involved another vehicle crashing into a stationary Waymo. Of these:
- 19 were rear-end collisions, typically among the most common accident types nationwide.
- Several involved stopped traffic, red lights, or vehicles queued at intersections.
In one example from March 16th in Los Angeles, a Waymo stopped for a red light, and the vehicle behind simply did not slow in time. The other driver’s passenger suffered a minor injury.
These collisions mirror general roadway trends where inattentive or distracted driving often results in drivers failing to brake.
2. Rear-End Crashes While the Waymo Was Moving
Another 7 crashes involved a Waymo being rear-ended while in motion. In 5 of the cases, the Waymo was traveling under 3 miles per hour approaching an intersection effectively a rolling stop.
In both faster-moving incidents, the following vehicles were still at fault. Nothing in Waymo’s driving behavior suggested unsafe or unpredictable movement.
3. Right-of-Way Violations by Other Drivers
In 4 crashes, another vehicle improperly entered Waymo’s right of way:
- Two involved turning vehicles cutting across Waymo’s lane at unsafe angles.
- Two others involved vehicles crashing into objects first, then careening into the Waymo.
These situations are highly common on urban roads with unpredictable drivers.
4. Intersection Collisions Involving Cyclists or Cars
Two crashes occurred in intersections involving either a bicyclist or another car. In one instance, a San Francisco biker traveling on the sidewalk collided with the side of a Waymo navigating a four-way stop. Thick vegetation blocked visibility, making it unlikely that either a human or vehicle could detect the cyclist.
Only minor injuries were reported.
5. Sideswipe Collisions Caused by Other Vehicles
Three incidents involved sideswipes:
- A heavy truck misjudged space on a narrow roadway in Atlanta.
- A truck clipped a stopped Waymo in San Francisco on a narrow street with parked vehicles.
- A car attempted to drive around a partially stopped Waymo and scraped its side.
In all three events, passengers reported minor injuries.
Although the other drivers were primarily at fault, investigators noted that Waymo may explore whether its software can better anticipate tight squeezes in narrow corridors.
6. Door-Related Injuries (“Dooring” Incidents)
Three incidents were caused when passengers opened a Waymo door into the path of a passing bicycle or scooter:
- In February, a bicyclist was injured and later sued Waymo.
- Passengers in one case claimed no alert was issued, while Waymo stated otherwise.
- All three involved human behavior, not autonomous navigation.
Dooring is a universal hazard, affecting traditional vehicles as well. Even Uber has settled similar cases.
Waymo’s “safe exit” feature includes an alert chime, though some argue it may be too subtle.
7. The Cat Incident: The One Ambiguous Case
One crash in Phoenix involved a cat running across the road. The Waymo braked abruptly, but several trailing cars rear-ended the vehicle and each other. Although no humans were injured, an airbag deployed.
Could Waymo have detected the animal earlier? The data is inconclusive, though the company may evaluate improvements in animal-recognition systems.
The Tempe Motorcycle Fatality (Post-Dataset)
Just after the reporting cutoff, a motorcycle rider died in Tempe after rear-ending a Waymo before being struck by another car. Although details are still pending, early analysis reported by a former Waymo advisor suggests the autonomous vehicle was not at fault.
This incident will be reviewed once full NHTSA documentation becomes available.
What This Crash Data Suggests About Autonomous Safety
The pattern is clear:
- Most serious crashes involving Waymo vehicles were caused by other drivers.
- A notable portion occurred when the Waymo was not moving.
- Mechanical failures were rare.
- Dooring incidents were human-caused.
- Only a handful of events even slightly implicated Waymo’s software.
Autonomous vehicles can still improve, especially in rare or ambiguous conditions. But this dataset strongly supports the argument that autonomous driving when correctly designed and rigorously tested can significantly reduce collisions compared to typical human driving behavior.
The Role of Oversight, Transparency, and Public Trust
Waymo’s disclosure obligations to NHTSA provide transparency critical to public trust. As autonomous transportation expands across major cities, transparency will remain essential.
Public trust involves:
- consistent reporting
- third-party evaluation
- public accessibility to crash logs
- critical review of safety systems
- addressing edge-case failures
- continuous improvements in collision reconstruction
Self-driving technology will be judged not just by its best days but by how it performs under the most challenging circumstances.
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